Weekly Crop Commentary - 10/31/2025

Briana Holtzman
Grain Merchandiser, Kenton (Region 1)

The US and China finally agreed on a trade deal. The deal included Chinese purchases of US soybeans, which is what the market has been anticipating all week. China agreed to purchase 12 MMT (440 mbu) this year and committed to 23 MMT (918 mbu) for the next three years. There is some speculation that China has already started buying US soybeans, but since the government is still partially shut down, we aren’t seeing any official export sales reports to confirm this.

We saw the effects of Hurricane Melissa yesterday. We got about 1.7" of rain here in Kenton. This will likely keep people in our area out of the fields for a day or so.

We’ll be keeping an eye on Argentina’s weather through the winter. Argentina is expected to experience warmer and drier conditions from January to March. This could stress crops through their key developmental growing stages.

Have a happy Halloween and a great weekend!

Zach Dennis
Grain Merchandiser, Upper Sandusky (Region 2)

Welcome to the end of October! Hard to believe we are only four weeks away from Thanksgiving! Bean harvest has pretty much wrapped up here in Region 2, but there are still some double crops out there. The average test weight was 56.5, and the moisture was 11.0%. Generally speaking, beans in the area yielded anywhere from 55 to 70 bushels on average. With the nice weather we have had, the corn harvest is moving right along. Moisture has been a small issue this year, with the average so far being 18.8%.

We have also seen a great week in the bean market! What we have been waiting on since mid-summer finally happened. On Monday, the bean market took off on speculation that a verbal trade deal with China was imminent. Then on Tuesday, we saw that China indeed purchased some soybeans. Yesterday, it was confirmed that a deal was in place. More details are yet to be released regarding the deal, but they have committed to 440 million bushels of soybeans.

Hope you have a great weekend!

Zane Robison
Grain Merchandiser, Urbana (Region 3)

It’s been a wild ride in the markets the past couple of weeks! Prices seem unable to settle, leading to a significant increase in volatility. Corn finally broke through the ceiling and filled the gap way back in July, only to lose steam and fall right back into the same range we’ve been stuck in for the last two months. I’ll also note that Trump has yet to mention corn in his export saga on X (or whatever he’s calling it these days). Corn basis continues to firm up locally, though it’s tough to say how much corn is still standing in the fields. Between the recent rally and basis improvements, now’s a great time to start thinking about spring delivery. Be sure to reach out to talk through target levels for any bin bushels.

Soybeans have been interesting, to say the least. News of China stepping in to buy sent the market into a frenzy. It’s hard not to wonder what might’ve happened if that announcement had come before the rally. Could we have seen a limit-up day? China pledged to purchase 918 million bushels per year for the next three years, but with questions still swirling around acreage and the lack of confirmed purchase details, soybean futures have seemingly found a cap for now.

Wheat also caught a lift from the trade deal, gaining 15–20¢ this week. If you’ve got wheat planted for July 2026, now’s a good time to consider setting target offers or getting some early sales in.

Have a great weekend!

Lisa Warne
Grain Merchandiser, Marysville (Region 4)

Happy Halloween! The Marysville area got about 1.3” of rain this week, putting a halt to field activity and giving people a chance to catch up on paperwork, rest, and maintenance. Please note that settlements are available upon request only. If you haven’t received your settlement or deferred contracts, please contact your local office to have them processed. If you need a Proof of Yield for your crop insurance, you can find that in the Scale Tickets section of the portal, or any of us can run a report for you.

Overall, the Marysville region is more than 75% complete with harvest. Soybeans are essentially done (95%+), apart from some double-crops remaining out there. Corn is over 60% complete. Some have finished and are helping neighbors. Yield reports are ranging from “better than expected” to “tapering off for later planted corn.” Generally, I think most are happier with corn production than they were with soybeans.

The prospect of selling soybeans to China has certainly given the market a good rally that many have taken advantage of this week. The futures market gapped higher last Sunday night and gave us five straight days of gains, if today’s market holds. After the presidents met on Thursday, it’s rumored that China purchased four cargoes of beans. They are expected to purchase 12 mmt of beans this year and at least 25 mmt annually over the next three years. I don’t believe an actual written agreement has been signed, though, so we’ll have to see how this progresses. I’m in the boat that a rally should be rewarded, especially when soybeans have gained over a dollar in a month’s time, so if you have bushels on DP or in the bin, maybe it’s time to price a percentage if you haven’t already. 

Have a great weekend!

Ralph Wince
Grain Merchandiser, Canfield (Region 5)

Good afternoon. The bean market has finally come alive. We saw a big rally ahead of the announcement yesterday, and it appears that China will purchase some beans this year and in the next three years. The deal has not been signed yet, but that is supposed to happen next week. This is the opportunity that so many have been waiting for, so don’t let this get away from you now that you have a chance. 

Harvest continues to move along. I would say that we are 90% or more done with the bean harvest and around 55% done with the corn harvest. Yields continue to disappoint, both in beans and corn, and basis continues to improve here in the East.  The forecast looks promising moving ahead to next week. We will see guys start back into corn tomorrow or Sunday and hopefully be able to finish up beans by the first part of next week. 

Have a great weekend.

Morgan Hefner
Grain Merchandiser, Nashport (Region 5)

Happy Halloween!

This week’s markets have been a bit of a roller coaster, and all while in the middle of harvest, of course! Over the last weekend, news broke that President Trump and Chinese President Xi had negotiated the framework of a trade deal. While no official details were released at the time, the markets wasted no time reacting to the news. Beans rallied heavily Monday and Tuesday, with SX25 gaining nearly 50¢ before working its way back down. By Wednesday morning, the markets had run out of steam. After the announcement that China is buying 12mmt of U.S. beans, the market on Thursday morning was moving in every direction within a few hours.

While beans were rallying, they also pulled corn prices higher, albeit not to the same extent as soybeans had moved this week. Overall, this week was a great example of just how quickly the markets can change.

Although we have no official harvest progress report, the western half of the state appears to be wrapping up harvest quickly, or at least nearing completion. In the eastern half of our state, crops are still being harvested, but harvest is coming along swiftly. The rain this week put harvest on pause, but moving forward, it looks like it will be a great fall weekend with nice weather. It appears that the nice weather will continue into next week, creating a great opportunity for farmers to finish their harvest or make significant progress toward completion.

As harvest nears its end, the off-season will be a great time to develop a plan to sell the bushels in the bins or create a marketing plan for your grain next year. I would be happy to discuss different contracting options with you as we close out harvest and enter a less busy time of year.